About me

Thursday, June 10, 2010

I found someone's dream at KMart

During the final steps of this morning's walk, with my head filled with a few thousand nuggets of statistical crap no one else would ever need, much less want, to remember, I espied with my little eye a glimmer of an official-looking scrap of paper. Closer inspection revealed a lottery ticket.

Carolina Pick 3, yesterday's draw, to be precise.



Precise. You know, it really amuses me when someone expects, and demands, a precise statistical answer.

Get over it. We estimate the likelihood that something will happen fairly precisely, given what we know.

For example, I don't have to check the web site to strongly expect that I'm holding a loosing ticket. Most tickets are loosers. That's how the house wins.

And that's why we, usually, loose.

Of course, whoever dropped this ticket is very likely bemoaning the loss of a few hundred dollars.

Why do I think the ticket hit the ground before the numbers were known? Because the paper was not crumpled.

It's crumpled now. That happened directly after I checked the web site.

I remain the loser, even on someone else's dream.

Location:Westgrove St,Raleigh,United States

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